That City AM chart: DT now reports London on track for only 15-20k new builds in 2027, compared to 60-65k annually in 2015-20 and the target of 80k p.a. now: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/property/buying-selling/developers-padlock-new-builds-london-housebuilding-collapse/ That target is itself extraordinarily unambitious given both that 3.8 mn of the UK's 28.6 mn households are in London, and that the nationwide minimum target to avoid the supply situation deteriorating further is 1.5 mn new builds (over the Parliament). As a (reluctant) Lab voter with buyer's remorse now, I have to say that this is not what the much hearalded 'delivery' looks like :(
For once the DT's right. Can't go far wrong with East Sheen / Richmond Park borders if you want to be in London but, at the same time, one removed from it. Park's a bona fide oasis. 2,500 acres, all just 8 or 9 miles, via Mortlake Station, from the metropolis' heart; and which, unlike Kew, isn't unbearably blighted by planes. Given this, £700/sq ft is a relative bargain - at least compared to super prime central locations. You could pay that or even more now for areas considered 'up and coming' as recently as the 1990s. On this occasion, I think the 'old money' knows best. Like your 'why behind the when' type framing of rate cuts as not just a policy pivot, but also a structural shift tied to broader conditions: what markets expect, versus what may actually happen. After 2009 we were told every year to expect rates to rise. We ended up waiting to the end of 2021! Lower rates with modestly elevated inflation would probably suit HMT, given the national debt dilemma, and REITs are a play of sorts on that, i.e. trying to align with government interests and all with the leverage of both the REIT's own borrowings and the sector's current discounts to NAV.
Yes, not sure how familiar you are with my property saga but having dithered and screwed up buying a property pre-GFC I eventually decided the market was bonkers, saw the crash come, then totally missed the scale of the salvage operation (15 years of unprecedentedly low rates, more or less!)
Curiously enough the whole experience helped me learn to stay in markets that are running as much as what it taught me about getting out! And, as you say, think about what a government that wants to get re-elected will want to do most…
Do you think there's that much difference between Kew/Sheen/Mortlake, airplane noise wise? It seems a wash to me anecdotally but perhaps there's data somewhere.
When Mrs DH and I lived in London, a long time ago now, it was unbearable around the roads leading from Kew station when we went across the capital to visit the Gardens. A noise level with peaks hitting 80-90 dB, planes flying as low as 1,500 ft every 1-4 minutes for 75% of the year. Heathrow's Association for the Control of Aircraft Noise reports stress, sleep issues, and cardiovascular risks from chronic exposure with >84,000 complaints logged in 2016 alone (one every 5 minutes), and with Kew as a major hotspot. In contrast, Fife Road overlooking / adjoining Richmond Park and Sheen Common was a relatively tranquil paradise. llRC, the houses there mostly ranged from £3 mn to £9 mn (back in 2010-12) and, looking on Rightmove now, seem to be the around same price range and price/sq ft (it was generally £1,300/sq ft in 2010-12). Sandwiched betwixt its much larger and grander neighbours I remember a cottage of ~1,000 sq ft was on the market in that period for £1 mn. Way beyond our budget back then, but what a bargain, especially being by far the cheapest (but quaintest) home on such a well placed street.
That City AM chart: DT now reports London on track for only 15-20k new builds in 2027, compared to 60-65k annually in 2015-20 and the target of 80k p.a. now: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/property/buying-selling/developers-padlock-new-builds-london-housebuilding-collapse/ That target is itself extraordinarily unambitious given both that 3.8 mn of the UK's 28.6 mn households are in London, and that the nationwide minimum target to avoid the supply situation deteriorating further is 1.5 mn new builds (over the Parliament). As a (reluctant) Lab voter with buyer's remorse now, I have to say that this is not what the much hearalded 'delivery' looks like :(
For once the DT's right. Can't go far wrong with East Sheen / Richmond Park borders if you want to be in London but, at the same time, one removed from it. Park's a bona fide oasis. 2,500 acres, all just 8 or 9 miles, via Mortlake Station, from the metropolis' heart; and which, unlike Kew, isn't unbearably blighted by planes. Given this, £700/sq ft is a relative bargain - at least compared to super prime central locations. You could pay that or even more now for areas considered 'up and coming' as recently as the 1990s. On this occasion, I think the 'old money' knows best. Like your 'why behind the when' type framing of rate cuts as not just a policy pivot, but also a structural shift tied to broader conditions: what markets expect, versus what may actually happen. After 2009 we were told every year to expect rates to rise. We ended up waiting to the end of 2021! Lower rates with modestly elevated inflation would probably suit HMT, given the national debt dilemma, and REITs are a play of sorts on that, i.e. trying to align with government interests and all with the leverage of both the REIT's own borrowings and the sector's current discounts to NAV.
Yes, not sure how familiar you are with my property saga but having dithered and screwed up buying a property pre-GFC I eventually decided the market was bonkers, saw the crash come, then totally missed the scale of the salvage operation (15 years of unprecedentedly low rates, more or less!)
Curiously enough the whole experience helped me learn to stay in markets that are running as much as what it taught me about getting out! And, as you say, think about what a government that wants to get re-elected will want to do most…
Do you think there's that much difference between Kew/Sheen/Mortlake, airplane noise wise? It seems a wash to me anecdotally but perhaps there's data somewhere.
When Mrs DH and I lived in London, a long time ago now, it was unbearable around the roads leading from Kew station when we went across the capital to visit the Gardens. A noise level with peaks hitting 80-90 dB, planes flying as low as 1,500 ft every 1-4 minutes for 75% of the year. Heathrow's Association for the Control of Aircraft Noise reports stress, sleep issues, and cardiovascular risks from chronic exposure with >84,000 complaints logged in 2016 alone (one every 5 minutes), and with Kew as a major hotspot. In contrast, Fife Road overlooking / adjoining Richmond Park and Sheen Common was a relatively tranquil paradise. llRC, the houses there mostly ranged from £3 mn to £9 mn (back in 2010-12) and, looking on Rightmove now, seem to be the around same price range and price/sq ft (it was generally £1,300/sq ft in 2010-12). Sandwiched betwixt its much larger and grander neighbours I remember a cottage of ~1,000 sq ft was on the market in that period for £1 mn. Way beyond our budget back then, but what a bargain, especially being by far the cheapest (but quaintest) home on such a well placed street.