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Tom Grlla's avatar

This reminds me that shorting Vistry was a bit of a no-brainer when all the US investors who didn't understand the UK market thought it was going to be the next NVR (obvs I didn't do it...).

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Delta Hedge's avatar

Interesting stats and links. Thank you. Whatever the (several and complex) underlying (planning and economic) causes, the immediate one is that UK homebuilders generally are in a bad way. Watkin Jones (LON: WJG) is a cautionary example of the woes in UK housing development. Like many other developers,it fell into a nasty downturn in 2023, earnings dropped from £30-45m a year to ~0 (adjusted for one-offs). Shares followed, with the market cap plummeting from >£500m for most of 2022 to <£200m by mid-2023. They then cut their dividend, forcing the dividend funds to sell out, which drove the market cap below £100m. By the time those funds had sold out, the market cap had been pushed to just £50m — for a company that had been earning £40m annually just a couple of years prior. When that happens, which banks are going to fund the business for it to take on further risks with new housing development; and what Board is going to be prepared to take those risks anyways?

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